Changes in Stanley Cup Playoff Teams Every Year
When hockey fans, hockey analysts, and sports books make their predictions and betting odds for the upcoming NHL season, it is common to see recency bias towards recent playoff teams. While sometimes there are clear indications that a team is on the verge of a breakout, or that a team is about to decline due to factors such as age, for the most part it, is extremely difficult to accurately predict new playoff teams and previous playoff teams dropping out. As discussed in this article last year, there are numerous variables at play that make it especially difficult to detect sudden risers and droppers; teams that completely change course compared to previous season trends. This recent article went in depth on how performance at the end of the previous season cannot accurately predict changes in playoff and non-playoff teams. This current article aims to highlight one of the points brought up in the recent article, which was a segment showcasing just how volatile teams are in terms of their playoff status.
Since the salary cap era beginning in 2005-2006, and excluding 2006 itself since the previous season was in 2003-2004, 2019-2020 since the regular season ended abruptly without a true picture of the playoff bracket, and 2021 since the prior season of 2019-2020 is unreliable as a comparison, there have been an average of 5.06 new teams to make the playoffs in this 17 year sample. This in turn means there have been an average of 5.06 playoff teams that drop out of the playoffs every year.
Within these 17 seasons, nine times there were five new teams, three times there were seven new teams, twice there were four new teams, twice there were three new teams, and once there were six new teams. Three new playoff teams are the fewest changes we have seen, occurring between 2010 and 2011 and 2023 and 2024.
As seen, from 2010 to 2011, the Avalanche, Devils, and Senators dropped drastically, while the Lightning increased tremendously. Such large point swings are extremely difficult to predict, and usually come down to qualitative variables such as injuries, off-ice dynamics, or team chemistry.
In 2023-2024, the Canucks rose up due to fantastic play by goaltender Thatcher Demko, a breakout season by Norris Trophy winner Quinn Hughes, outstanding play by star forwards such as Eias Pettersson and J.T. Miller, and fantastic depth production. On the other hand, the Devils saw a significant drop in large part due to injuries, as well as unexpectedly poor goaltending.
Although it is difficult to predict these changes, we can be sure that there is a significant likelihood of some change. With a mean of 5.06 new playoff teams and a standard deviation of 1.20, the likelihood of no new playoff teams is near zero percent, even after accounting for the fact that the sample size of 17 is small. While it’s difficult to imagine any of the 2024-2025 playoff teams regressing, chances are it will happen, and that more than one will regress. Whether it will be a team as close to the edge of the playoff line like the Montreal Canadiens, or as far up the standings as the Winnipeg Jets, chances are we will, as always, witness team volatility in the 2025-2026 NHL season.