Three Important Trends for the 2025-2026 NHL Season
With the 2025-2026 NHL season starting on Tuesday, October 6th, there are many storylines and trends from last season that fans and analysts will be keeping their eye on. While there are too many to consider for just one article, here are three key trends for this upcoming season.
1 - Empty Net Goals Will Remain High
As mentioned in depth in this previous article, the average number of empty net goals have risen significantly since 2014, with last season seeing an especially large increase as shown by the graph below.
The explanations for this trend were highlighted in the previous article, but to summarize, the general strategy has shifted to earlier goalie pulls, and coaches are no longer concerned about the risk of allowing extra goals against (GA) in the standings, as the tie breaking procedure has further diluted goal differential down the list. While empty net goals could continue to rise, it is important to note that this trend does have a ceiling. The NHL will likely never get to the point where coaches are regularly pulling their goalies when down by four or more goals, so goalie pulling strategies have likely matured, unless if we begin to see earlier and earlier goalie pullings, such as pulling a goalie with four or five minutes remaining in a one-goal game. However, it is very unlikely that the empty net strategy will revert back to the more conservative methods when coaches would primarily only pull their goalie when down by one or two goals, and with under 90 seconds remaining. This means that the most likely outcome for this season is that empty net goals will remain high, growing or decreasing only slightly from last season.
2 - Save Percentages Will Continue to Decline
As discussed in depth in a previous article here, save percentages have been declining steadily for the past 10 years now. Although scoring and save percentage typically have an inverse relationship, where as scoring goes up, we can expect save percentages to drop, and vice versa, there are instances where we see seasons where both increase or decline simultaneously. In the recent two seasons, this has been the case, where scoring is dropping, but so are save percentages. League average save percentage officially hit .900 or below last season for the first time since the 1995-1996 season.
Numbers do not include empty net goals in order to accurately reflect save %
While it’s difficult to predict whether goal scoring will continue to drop or if it will bounce back, it is likely that save percentages will continue to decline, as it has done so consistently for 10 seasons. This is backed by the fact that the proportion of shots that are high danger have been increasing significantly in recent seasons, meaning the average shot that goaltenders face are becoming more difficult.
Stats gathered from moneypuck.com, where low danger, medium danger, and high danger shots are classified based on shot location, shot speed, etc
The above graph tells us that players and coaches are becoming much more selective about where to shoot, which increases the proportion of shots that are dangerous and more likely to score.
3 - Power Plays Will Continue to Get Better
Since the 1990-1991 season, four of the ten best power plays all came from last season, with all 10 of the best coming in the past six seasons.
Top 10 best power plays since 1990-1991
Part of this comes from the general increase of scoring in the modern era compared to the late 1990s and all the way into the 2010s, as shown on the previous graph showing goals/GP each season. However, what is especially telling is the fact that not a single power play from the high scoring early 1990s made it to the top 10. As seen by the graph below, power play percentages have been rising significantly since 2012, and there does not seem to be any logical reason for this to slow down.
This trend is likely explained by the previous high danger shot proportion graph, where players and coaches are becoming much more efficient on the power play and knowledgeable about optimal plays like when to shoot or pass, and in general makes the average shot more difficult for goaltenders to save. It is very unlikely that scoring alone is responsible for this increase in power play percentage, as scoring was much higher in the early 1990s, yet power play percentages were noticeably lower. Additionally, scoring has literally decreased in the recent two seasons, yet league average power play percentage continued to climb last season. As a result, there is reason to believe that with modern analytics and knowledge about optimal plays and shooting areas, power plays will only become more efficient in the 2025-2026 regular season.
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