Another Slow Start for the Buffalo Sabres
The Buffalo Sabres need little introduction. They haven’t been to the post-season since 2011 and hold the NHL record for the longest playoff drought as a result, that being 14 seasons. After being shut out 4-0 by the Rangers in their home opener and losing 3-1 to the Bruins in their second game, the Sabres are off to yet another troubling start after the first week of the 2025-2026 NHL season.
While it is only two games, it is extra important for the Sabres to turn it around quickly even more than other teams off to slow starts, simply because of the psychological factor of this drought that impacts their players and the overall narrative that is almost impossible to ignore. Below is a graph of the Sabres’ points percentages through the first quarter of each season during their 14 year drought.
In only four seasons did they have a Q1 points percentage above .500, and only once above .600. In 2018-2019, the Sabres had a 10-game winning streak and finished their first 21 games with a 0.650 points percentage. However, an abysmal 0.317 points percentage in the latter 41 games that season meant the 2018-2019 Buffalo Sabres joined the 2016-2017 Philadelphia Flyers as the only teams in NHL history to miss the playoffs despite recording a 10-game winning streak at some point during the season.
As mediocre as their Q1 performances have been, they are typically even worse in the second quarter, as seen by the below graph.
It’s important to keep in mind that when looking at points percentage, 0.500 isn’t average like it is in other sports. Because extra time losses “cushion” total losses in the calculation, 0.550 is usually the absolute minimum a team can have at the end of the season while still expecting to be a playoff team, with some exceptions. In this playoff drought, the Sabres have been closer to 0.400 than 0.550 in the majority of their second quarters. Teams can only afford to have a poor second quarter performance if they had an extraordinarily strong Q1 performance, but this has not been the case with the Sabres in recent seasons. While this could simply be explained by the fact that the Sabres were not expected to be good for most of these seasons and went through a rebuild in the mid-2010s, their difference in second half performance in recent seasons proves that this team has been capable of so much more.
As seen, in five consecutive seasons, the Sabres have had a higher second half points percentage than first half, and for the majority of these seasons, the difference is noticeable. The Sabres consistently get off to poor starts, but improve as the season progresses. Could it be possible that the playoff drought conversation is a weight on the players’ minds, and once the Sabres are so far out of the playoff picture, the pressure is temporarily relieved and they begin to play better? Whatever the reason may be, the Sabres have scored only one goal in their first two games, a far cry from the 3.28 goals per game they scored last season, which was one of the few bright spots of the team. Heading into Monday, October 13th, they have a difficult matinee game against the Colorado Avalanche, who have visibly looked like one of the best teams so far in the first week. If the Sabres want to stop this snowball from continually rolling, they will need to get their first win as soon as possible. It does not take long before it’s no longer the early in the season anymore, especially in what is arguably the most competitive division in the league, the Atlantic division.