Predicting Who Will Win the 2025 Stanley Cup
While it is impossible to create a statistical model that can be correct 100% of the time, past trends have shown clear indicators of finalists that are more likely to win the Stanley Cup than their opponent. While a large focus in the analytical hockey world revolves around quantitative statistics, qualitative variables are often overlooked despite having some of the strongest predictive indicators. As the Edmonton Oilers get set to host the Florida Panthers on Wednesday, June 4th for a Stanley Cup Final rematch, both qualitative and quantitative stats can be used to best predict the 2025 Stanley Cup champion.
Qualitative Statistics
There are three key qualitative trends that apply to this years’ Stanley Cup Finals. The first one is rest, which has already been discussed in depth in the full article found here: “Is Rest Actually Beneficial in the NHL?” but to summarize, statistics show that teams actually perform better when they have fewer days off between series. In fact, statistically teams that win a series in four games have the worst series winning percentage in the following round, and teams that win in seven games have the best series winning percentage in the following round. Since 1990, 25 out of 34 of the Stanley Cup Finalists with less rest won the cup for a significant 73.5% win rate. This points towards evidence that teams do better when they are in a rhythm and can stay in a routine, whereas rested teams may be rustier.
Since the beginning of the century, there have been eight times where two teams match up where one team won their previous round in four games, and the other team won their previous round in seven games. Seven times in a row the team that won in seven games won that match up until the 2022 Lightning and Rangers broke the streak.
The second variable is home-ice advantage. While home-ice advantage is generally shrugged off in the modern NHL with how equal teams are, the Stanley Cup Finals are a completely different landscape. Since 1987, the finalist with home-ice advantage has won the Stanley Cup in 28 out of 37 years, for a staggering 75.7% win rate. Furthermore, since the 1997 Detroit Red Wings, the 2012 L.A. Kings are the only road team to win both of the first two games on the road to take a 2-0 series lead. In this same time frame, 15 finalists with home-ice advantage took a 2-0 series lead, with 13 of them winning the Stanley Cup. This can most likely be explained by two factors; the fact that teams with home-ice advantage are theoretically the better team in general since they had more points in the regular season, and the dynamics of the finals, where the pressure and adrenaline amplifies, and having the energy of the home crowd becomes a significant motivator for the players of the home team. When paired with the rest variable, these two trends become even more significant. Since 1990, there have been 20 instances where the team with home-ice advantage is also the less rested team. Of these, the home team won 18 out of 20 times for a winning percentage of 90%. The 2009 Penguins and 2012 Kings were the only teams to defy these odds in that time frame, where they had more rest between the Conference Finals and Stanley Cup Finals and had were the road team in the finals. Heading into the 2025 Stanley Cup Finals, these two teams fall into this category, where the Oilers are both less rested and start on home ice.
Home-ice advantage versus rested matrix since 1990
The final qualitative variable is being a Canadian team. While on the surface this seems like a variable that is insignificant and not one that would have any impact, the numbers suggest that it is unlikely to be a coincidence. Since the last Canadian Stanley Cup winner in 1993, the Montreal Canadiens, Canadian teams have gone on a finals losing streak of seven in a row. If every finals was a 50/50 chance, the chances of seven Canadian teams losing in a row would be a 0.8% chance. Of course, probabilities are not that simple, and pointing out home-ice advantage as discussed previously, six out of the seven Canadian teams began on the road, with the 2011 Canucks being the only Canadian team of the seven to have home-ice advantage. If we use the home-ice advantage trend to assume all home-ice advantage teams have a 75.7% chance to win the cup, the chances of all seven of these Canadian teams losing would still be a low 4.6% chance.
All Canadian Stanley Cup finalists since 1993
What’s more, is of these seven finals, Canadian teams have had a combined seven potential cup-clinching games. In other words, there have been seven games where if the Canadian team won the game, they would have won the Stanley Cup. Once again, the chances of this happening are far too low to be a coincidence. The most likely explanation is the fact that playing in a Canadian market comes with additional pressure, especially with discussions on the Canadian cup drought that amplify every year.
Instances where Canadian teams could have won the Stanley Cup since 1993
Of these three qualitative variables, the Oilers have the advantage in rest (five days off compared to the Panthers six days off) and home-ice advantage. The Panthers have the advantage in being an American team playing a Canadian team.
Quantitative Statistics
There are many quantitative statistics that help predict a Stanley Cup champion. Based on statistics from rounds one to three since 1990, and ignoring regular season statistics, some of the best predictor variables include winning percentage when trailing first, shot differential per games played, and even strength goals for per games played.
Finalists with a better winning percentage when trailing first compared to their opponent won 71.9% of the time since 1990. This variable likely has such a strong success rate among because it shows a teams’ ability to be resilient; not psychologically impacted by allowing the first goal and needing to come from behind. Additionally, winning at a prominent rate after trailing first shows that a team is generally good at scoring goals, and that they commonly score two or more goals per game, another indicator of a successful team.
Finalists with a better shot differential per games played compared to their opponent won 67.7% of the time since 1990. This is likely due to the fact that shot related statistics are correlated with puck possession statistics, time spent in the offensive zone, and time spent in the defensive zone; all important metrics. Additionally, this variable takes into account both how good a team is at generating shots, as well as how good a team is at suppressing shots against.
Finalists with a better even strength goals for per games played statistic compared to their opponent won 66.7% of the time since 1990. It should be noted that even strength goals are goals in all situations excluding the powerplay or penalty kill; scoring an empty net goal counts as an even strength goal. This last part is important, as this variable would imply that teams that score many empty nets are able to win close games, a trait that generally becomes extremely important in the Stanley Cup Finals. Additionally, penalties become less frequent in the finals, as referees restrict making “soft” calls to avoid having an influence on the outcome of the game. As a result, teams that have a proven ability to score at even strength tend to succeed in the finals.
Of these three variables, the Oilers have the advantage in winning percentage when trailing first and even strength goals for per games played. Both teams are tied in shot differential per games played.
2025 Stanley Cup Finalist comparisons among these three statistics from Rounds 1-3
After analyzing the qualitative and quantitative variables, both as an open ended discussion as well as using a separate calibrated regression model behind the scenes, the statistics are heavily in favour of the Edmonton Oilers to win the 2025 Stanley Cup. However, as always, it is impossible to build a 100% foolproof model, and despite some major trends favouring the Oilers, this by no means implies that it would be a surprise if the Florida Panthers win the 2025 Stanley Cup. After all, this is their third consecutive finals appearance.